Identity Verified Thinker in Science / Social Sciences / Psychology
Michael Smithson
Michael Smithson
Michael Smithson is a Professor in the Psychology Department at The Australian National University. He has written 6 books, co-edited 3, and published more than 120 refereed articles and book chapters. His research interests focus on how people think about and respond to unknowns.
 

Categories

This Blog has no active categories.
 
Close  
Feb. 25, 2011 6:56 pm
On August 18 th , 1913, the ball of a roulette wheel at Le Grand Casino of Monte Carlo landed on black 26 consecutive times. During this streak a betting frenzy ensued as a growing crowd staked increasingly large amounts on red. They believed that the ball was “due” to land on red. They lost and the casino reaped a large reward, thanks to Gambler’s Fallacy (GF). GF is well-known and yet it...  Read More
Feb. 8, 2011 5:26 pm
There are well-understood formal frameworks for decision making under risk, i.e., where we know all the possible outcomes of our acts and also know the probabilities of those outcomes. There are even prescriptions for decision making when we don’t quite know the probabilities but still know what the outcomes could be. Under ignorance we not only don’t know the probabilities, we may not even know...  Read More
Return to Main Blog Page

BestThinking.com to Shut Down Permanently on December 31, 2017

If you want to save a copy of your content, you must do so before the website shuts down on December 31, 2017. We will NOT be able to provide any assistance after the website shuts down. We are available at support@thinkermedia.com only until the shutdown to provide more information and assistance.

It was a noble 10-year experiment, but it turns out that the writers with the best content are the least adept at the tech required to publish under our model, which in hindsight, makes perfect sense. If you are dedicating your life to becoming an expert in your specialty, you don’t have a lot of time left for figuring out publishing tech.

It hasn't helped that we have entered an age of unprecedented polarization and antagonism which doesn't foster demand for a website dedicated to the respectful engagement of diverse views.

Thank you, everyone!

Close
 
Latest Thinking in Science
corner
corner
 
 
Latest Ebooks