Identity Verified Thinker in Business / Industries / Pharmaceuticals
Dennis Lendrem
Dennis Lendrem
Making Data Make Sense
Feb. 29, 2012 12:19 pm
71% of scientists use questionable methods when presenting data. Call me a cynic, but when presented with any statistic one of the first questions I ask is “Who is the author?” Specifically, who is the source, what is their angle, and what spin are they likely to place on the data. I have to dig a bit. So, I dug a bit. At first glance, the...  Read More
Feb. 27, 2012 1:16 pm
What is the biggest problem facing the pharmaceutical industry? Reading the literature, following the business pages and listening to industry commentary we might be tempted to believe that the answer is high attrition rates [1-5] . And attrition is important. Drug development is a high risk business. The probability (p) of a molecule making it to market is low and the attrition rate (1-p) is...  Read More
Feb. 23, 2012 1:32 pm
Fast Fail strategies work by rapidly clearing the development pipeline of marginal products releasing development resources to focus on more promising products (Lendrem, 1995). The Quick-Kill model demonstrates that Fast Fail strategies will: shorten the expected time to market, even as the cycle time for successful projects increases (the Development Speed Paradox ) increase development...  Read More
Feb. 22, 2012 3:21 pm
The Online Dating Problem is a variation on the Secretary Problem - a famous problem in optimal stopping theory. The original form of the problem goes something as follows. Imagine an administrator willing to hire the best secretary out of n rankable applicants for a position. The applicants are interviewed one-by-one in random order. A decision about each particular applicant is to be...  Read More
Feb. 14, 2012 1:00 pm
Doubling a very small number doesn't make it much bigger. Twice almost-nothing is still almost-nothing. Spiegelhalter's Law Bacon sandwiches are big news right now in the UK. A staple of the English diet,recent studies demonstrating increased cancer risks associated with eating bacon sandwiches have dismayed the great British public. Sadly, the quality of the reporting...  Read More
Feb. 7, 2012 4:09 pm
I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat. Will Rogers (1879-1935) actor, humorist, political columnist Will Rogers was born William Penn Adair Rogers on the Dog Iron Ranch in Indian Territory in what is now Oklahoma. One quarter Cherokee he later quipped that his ancestors didn't come over on the Mayflower but they "met the boat." The youngest of eight children Rogers...  Read More
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