Smart Food Shopping Can Offset Drought-Driven Price Hikes

It sounds like a dire year for eaters:

The worst drought in decades is crushing American farmers' crops of corn and soybeans, making it more expensive to feed a U.S. cattle herd that was already on the small side. Pork, chicken and eggs will be more expensive too.

But before you panic, know that it is not only possible but easy to shift your shopping and eating habits so that the expected price increases will affect you very little, if at all. The change might even make you healthier.

According to the Department of Agriculture, 2013 will see beef prices go up 4-5 percent, pork 2.5-3.5 percent, dairy 3.5-4.5 percent, and chicken and eggs 3-4 percent.

Here are some ideas for avoiding paying more for your weekly grocery tab, despite the price hikes:

• Buy ahead. These predictions are for 2013 prices, and the Los Angeles Times even suggested that beef prices may briefly drop this year as farmers slaughter some livestock instead of spending extra money to feed them. If you have a large freezer, it's always a good idea to buy a side of beef directly from the farmer; this year, it could be a great idea.

• Grab discounts. Many grocery stores mark down meat by 30-50 percent when its sell-by date nears. This meat is perfectly safe and simply needs to be used or frozen quickly. A 30 percent savings more than makes up for a 5 percent price increase. Across the grocery store, you'll find buy one, get one free deals each week. These offer 50 percent savings, again far greater than any expected price increases.

• Change what you buy. The USDA predicted that across the board, food prices will rise 2-3 percent—barely more than the normal 2.8 percent rate of inflation for food. It's meat prices that are going up, especially red meat. Red meat consumption has already been linked to health problems. Many of us have pledged time and again to eat more vegetables and less meat, to lose weight, save money and save the environment. Now's the time to do it. Vegetable prices are not expected to be affected by the drought, and plenty of healthy veggies can be had for $1-2 per pound, including the frozen variety that you can stock up on. Don't forget that whole-grain bread and brown rice contain protein as well.

• Put it in perspective. Some of us are on very tight grocery budgets, and those families will feel the pinch the most. If a family that can spend only $50 per week sees a 5 percent price increase across the board, that's like losing $2.50—a gallon of milk in some markets. But if you are like many American households that spend $200 or even $250 a week on groceries, losing $10-$12 in buying power would probably not be noticeable.

• Feel lucky you're in America. Another way of putting things into perspective: The World Bank estimates that Americans spend only 6 percent of our income on food, compared to 35 percent in India. The poor corn crop will hurt people in other countries much more than it will hurt any of us.

This is not to say that things aren't tough out there for low-income Americans. Food prices already jumped nearly 5 percent in 2011, and of course unemployment is still high. The point is that if you are not already grocery shopping with an eye on the bottom line, there are plenty of steps you can take that can more than offset the increases we're likely to see.