Remarks of General Hugh Shelton

Public Domain

This is a letter summarizing the remarks of General Hugh Shelton, retired chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, at the lecture series of the Economic Club of SW Michigan, Great Hall in Mendel Center in Benton Harbor on Tuesday, March 18, 2003. The general spoke just before the attack on Iraq but his remarks are still pertinent.

Copyright (c) 2003 Roger P. Hamburg, all rights reserved.

Wearing down the Reserves

I asked a question on the size of the military, particularly. The U.S. army is the 9th largest in the wold but it is the most capable because of its huge edge in technology and firepower, what the military calls “force multipliers”. But it is increasingly committed around the world, a la Bosnia, Kosovo, etc. and temporary commitments become permanent ones. Don’t we either have to increase the size of the ground forces or cut the commitments as Secretary Rumsfeld seemed to be saying in Europe where troops might rotate in and out or even Korea, where he has suggested either moving troops out of the DMZ area or out of South Korea altogether, destabilizing in the light of growing tension with the North. The general said that this is a growing problem when it is added that the army Chief of Staff has added that a follow on force of 100,000 might be needed in Iraq for quite a while after the fighting stops.

The personnel problem becomes more acute when we deal with the issue of the increasing reliance on the reserves. They were intended to be used only in a national emergency to supplement regular forces that were much larger in the past than now. At present, almost every time the military deploys it must call up reservists. Some military specialties like Civil Affairs (well digging, etc.) are 75% in the reserves. They are very much in demand. A typical reservist will be told that in a period of 3 years, he or she can count on spending 8 months or so on active duty. We are “wearing down” the reserves. Enlistments are down in recent months. A reservist will lose his livelihood and upon returning may have to sell a business, building or home to survive and feed a family.

Resumption of the Draft

An obvious follow up question concerned the resumption of the draft. The general said that is isn’t necessary now but might arise in the future and the public would recognize the need when it arose. Later he remarked about the rise of mainland China as a regional and eventually global rival of the U.S. Without tying the two together he seemed to say that the emergence of that kind of rival would lead to reconsidering the draft.

On Iraq

Shelton was in the room on 9/12 and insisted that there was no proof of any connection between Sadam Hussein and the 9/11 although there was a “drumbeat in there that day. Let’s hit Iraq.” The president said that there was no proof of a connection but the “drumbeat” continued and grew louder. (Some say it started BEFORE 9/11). President Bush’s rhetoric and force deployments, especially mobilization of reserves outran his diplomacy. The buildup did constitute pressure on Hussein to readmit the ams inspectors, however.

Shelton had confidence in the military campaign that has now begun but worried about the follow up occupation in a country that has never known unified rule. Some dislike Saddam in the area but fear that the at least kept the disparate parts together. An equivalent leadership would have to be cobbled together, a formidable task with the estimates ranging from $90 billion UP, more difficult because those who didn’t support the U.S. action in the U.N. or elsewhere might not be willing to help defray the cost. On a related theme the U.S> is committed to the defense of Israel while trying to maintain good relations with states like Egypt and Saudia Arabia whose rulers are perpetually hostage to younger, more militant elements just below them. What is Israel to do when 25 or so men, women and children are killed regularly? The hatred in that part of the world is astounding. For example, while deploring the loss of life in the Columbia disaster, the death of an Israeli was considered God’s judgement. The U.S. has tied its central command to Israel and has troops in Israel coordinating with the Israeli military and Sharon in the event that Hussein launches SCUDS with chemical or biological capabilities against Israel. This would be designed to forestall an Israeli response that Hussein would want to bring in other Arab states in support.

On North Korea

Yes we can fight a 2 front war but the general wonder out loud about doing that with 300,000 people tied up in SW Asian Rumsfeld’s remarks cited earlier about a possible pull back of American troops was intended in part to pressure the new South Korean government not to let its “sunshine” policy with the North to extend to overlooking or minimizing recent provocative behavior in Pyongynag like removing the U.N. inspectors, buzzing a U.S. reconnaissance plane, etc. The U.S. and South Korea must b together, The North Koreans have 10,000 artillery pieces and missiles dug in caves at the Demilitarized Zone. North Korea would constitute a “tough” military problem for us.

On Terrorism

the general revealed that the man who carried out the 1993 truck bombing at the World Trade Center intended to hit one tower to topple the other one. This would have caused hundreds of thousands of casualties in the financial district. We must balance our concern for our freedoms with the real threats that are out there. The general cited figures on the large number of skyscrapers, power plants, refineries and nuclear installations that are in the U.S. These are all potential targets, His tone was serious but not alarmist.

It was a sobering analysis by a well qualified speaker at a crisis moment in American history. As a former reservist myself recalled in the Berlin-Cuba crisis of 1961 with memories of BOTH the Korean War and the bombing of Pearl Harbor who lost a relative in 9/11, it was particularly timely.