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Michael Smithson
Michael Smithson
Michael Smithson is a Professor in the Psychology Department at The Australian National University. He has written 6 books, co-edited 3, and published more than 120 refereed articles and book chapters. His research interests focus on how people think about and respond to unknowns.
 

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Feb. 25, 2011 6:56 pm
On August 18 th , 1913, the ball of a roulette wheel at Le Grand Casino of Monte Carlo landed on black 26 consecutive times. During this streak a betting frenzy ensued as a growing crowd staked increasingly large amounts on red. They believed that the ball was “due” to land on red. They lost and the casino reaped a large reward, thanks to Gambler’s Fallacy (GF). GF is well-known and yet it...  Read More
Feb. 8, 2011 5:26 pm
There are well-understood formal frameworks for decision making under risk, i.e., where we know all the possible outcomes of our acts and also know the probabilities of those outcomes. There are even prescriptions for decision making when we don’t quite know the probabilities but still know what the outcomes could be. Under ignorance we not only don’t know the probabilities, we may not even know...  Read More
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